Gold Market Analysis June 2023

Here we are looking at the Gold futures contract on COMEX, which is identified with the ticker $GC. We've noticed a 'Cup & Handle' Pattern forming since 2011 on Gold prices. The pattern is a high probability pattern since it works out over 80% of the time when back-tested in history, this pattern is now well known amongst traders and often traders tend to get into purchasing a financial instrument soon after the breakout of the 'Handle' which is 1/4 the size and time period of the formation of the 'Cup'

Gold prices recently developed a 'Triple Top' Pattern reaching peaks at several occasions from July 2020 at $2089.2, another two years later in January 2022 at $2078.8 & the third recently at $2085.4 in May 2023. 

From every peak there has been a reversal in price with institutions pressuring #Gold prices using short positions and derivative contracts. As the 'Triple Top' pattern is also another high probability pattern this would lead to a significant breakout only if Gold prices move above $2075. 

See chart Below.

Here, we are looking at the longer term price action which is the 'Weekly' and 'Monthly'. As we narrow down price time period, to identify the current market trend for the coming day's and week's ahead, we look at the 'Daily Time Frame on Gold' 

Here, from the Daily price action in Gold we Draw a trendline dashed in yellow on the charts below, which marks the first support of $1815 in March 2023. This trendline extended further brings us to support at $1933. Therefore, here we expect $Gold prices to reach $1933 where we are likely to see plenty of retail buying sentiment alongside algorithmic gold trading systems executing buy orders for the short term, which maybe beneficial with a retest towards $1950 or $1970. 

However, looking at the 'Orderflow's in Gold' we notice volume imbalance in gold prices around the $1867 area which is highlighted. Therefore we expect Gold prices to break below the trendline where the market looks to gather liquidity. The initial false breakout would lead Gold prices from $1933 to $1922 & $1916 in the coming trading sessions. 

See chart Below